Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt are engaged in extensive negotiations about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the cornerstone of Ethiopia’s developmental project. This article was originally published in the 10th issue (April 2018) of The Ethiopian Messenger, the quarterly magazine of the Embassy of Ethiopia in Brussels.
In 2013, Ethiopia began construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), located in the headwaters of the Blue Nile River. The utilisation of the Nile waters is the centrepiece of Ethiopia’s developmental project. Upon completion, the dam will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant and will boost the economic growth of Ethiopia. The Nile is Ethiopia’s primary water resource: it covers 70% of its annual surface water and one-third of the country’s territory. However, with nearly 65 million people (more than 60 percent of the population) living without access to electricity, Ethiopia is also one of the countries with the highest energy poverty in the world, while the energy demand is increasing by 32 percent each year. Therefore, the utilisation of the waters of the Nile River is indispensable to eradicate poverty and the survival of Ethiopia. Currently, two-thirds of Ethiopia’s hydroelectric power potential is in the Nile Basin. Upon completion, the GERD will triplicate Ethiopia’s consumed energy and will be the country’s driving force for exporting electricity to its neighbouring countries.
Extensive regional negotiations
Ethiopia’s decision to construct a dam along the Nile has attracted criticism amongst the nations along the Nile, most significantly, Egypt. To appease this doubts, Ethiopia and Egypt have engaged in extensive negotiations about the GERD since its construction began. However, Cairo has, time and again, been relying on inertia to prevent any change in its dominating position by referring to a colonial agreement granting Egypt the enjoyment of most of the waters of the Nile (about two thirds, while 20 percent were guaranteed in Sudan). Ethiopia, despite being the source of 86 percent of the river’s water, has never been included in these water-sharing agreements and has for years been voicing out its right to develop the resource in every possible forum. Egypt has regarded the GERD as a risk for its survival since the very first day. To appease these fears, Addis stepped up efforts to convince Cairo that the dam would not harm Egypt by providing clarifications and confirmations on issues of concerns. Ethiopia even established an International Panel of Experts (IPoE), composed of two experts from each of the countries (Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan) concerned and international experts to review the design documents of the GERD and analyse of the benefits, costs and impacts of the GERD on each country. In May 2013, the IPoE’s final report, which concluded that the design and construction of the GERD were up to international standard and recommended two additional studies, was accepted by Sudan and Ethiopia but incomprehensibly rejected by Egypt. A Tripartite National Committee (TNC) composed of experts from the three countries was established in 2014 to guide and follow up on the conduct of the two assessment studies s to be conducted jointly by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan to enhance and build trust. Since 2013, trilateral and bilateral meetings have succeeded one another. However, Egypt has obstinately continued to deny Ethiopia`s legitimate right to fill and operate the GERD – a flagrant violation of the Agreement on the Declaration of Principles (DoP) on the GERD signed by the leaders of the three countries in March 2015.
Non-harmful development
Ethiopians have no intention to inflict any harm on Egyptians. The country is determined to build GERD because fighting poverty is a matter of survival to its people. Ethiopia’s endeavour to alleviate poverty and ensure sustainable economic growth is conducted with great respect to the principles of posing no-significant harm and equitable use of transboundary resources. Starting in the 1950s, Ethiopia conceived the idea of constructing hydroelectric dams in the Blue Nile Gorge and has undertaken several studies to meet the vital needs of its growing population. Studies conducted for half a century have found out that the dam has many blessings to offer to both Sudan and Egypt – be it in reducing sedimentation at Roseries Dam and protecting frequent flooding in Sudan, increasing the water levels at Aswan High Dam, not to mention its impacts in ensuring regulated flow of water in the Nile course. The mutually beneficial construction of an Ethiopian dam on Tekeze River is further proof of this. In short, the construction of the GERD has been planned carefully for decades, and Ethiopia has been carrying out its construction based on reliable experimental studies with consideration of downstream countries.
Stalemate
Ethiopia will soon start filling the dam. Again, the GERD filling plan considers the concerns of the three countries and will be done in a phased and responsible manner without causing significant harm to the equitable and reasonable use of the Nile waters by the two downstream states. The filling model of the Dam was specifically designed not to cause significant harm to lower riparian countries and considered hydro and geographical factors. Ethiopia has conducted these studies with the aim of building trust and confidence. The GERD is expected to have a positive impact regarding climate change, as the electric power the dam will generate will help ease the use of traditional firewood and will bring positive impact on the area’s climate Recent reports indicated the termination of the tripartite talks between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt due to inquiries from Egypt to incorporate the 1959 treaty, made between Egypt and Sudan, in their discussion agendas. Since then, various reports aiming to aggravate the discord were released by different media.
The way forward
However, leaders of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan agreed to work together on the Dam and issues of common interest and emphasised the need to work in unity after meeting on the sidelines of the African Union summit in Addis Ababa in January 2018. Strengthening cooperation on the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and boosting development cooperation were the major agendas. A consensus was reached among the leaders that any matter that harms any country should concern the other and moving way separately could not be the solution. The three leaders have instructed their Water and Foreign ministers to discuss on major issues related to GERD and report to the leaders within a month. They also agreed to establish a joint infrastructure fund that would allow infrastructure integration among the three countries. Unfortunately, a new round of talks held early April in Khartoum to ease Egypt’s concerns failed, as Cairo persists on claiming its “historical rights” on the river, guaranteed by colonial treaties dating from 1929 and 1959. The GERD is a symbol of cooperation that aims at enhancing the capacity of all the riparian countries including Egypt. Ethiopia firmly believes that the GERD will cause no significant harms to Egypt and always aspires to pursue its development activities in a “win-win” approach. Ethiopia is confident that the Nile`s waters are sufficient for all. Therefore, negotiation and balancing the interests of all parties concerned is only way out.
